New Model for Offshore Wind Site Suitability in Ireland

Ireland has outlined some ambitious renewable energy goals, aiming for 5 GW of offshore renewable energy by 2030 and full climate neutrality by 2050. Offshore wind energy can be a powerful tool to achieve this goal, and developers are currently in the planning phase for the construction of four new offshore wind farms.

All four of these wind farms (Dublin Array, Codling Wind Park, Tonn Nua, and North Irish Sea Array) will be using fixed platform foundations, meaning that they will be rigidly attached to the seafloor. This technology is currently the only foundation type being considered for development in Ireland as it has a proven and reliable track record compared to the alternative, which is floating foundations. However, the majority of research into Irish site suitability has focused on floating turbine foundations, as these are seen as the long term solution. While this may be true, as long as fixed foundation projects are in the development pipeline, it is important to know where to put them in order to ensure their success. And recent events have shown that our understanding of fixed foundation site suitability could be significantly flawed!

I say this because the planners of a fifth wind farm, Scierde Rocks, abruptly canceled their preparations in April of 2025, citing poor site suitability as a primary reason for the project’s failure. This project was valued at almost 1.5 billion euro, and it was reported that the Irish government lost a 30 million euro bond when the project went down. Because of events like this, it’s my opinion that as long as billion dollar projects are in the development pipeline, it is extremely important to be confident that we know where to put them.

As part of my dissertation, I built a dynamic model that uses Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis and GIS to combine 11 different site suitability factors and create a cohesive map of fixed platform wind farm viability in the Irish Exclusive Economic Zone. I then went on to calibrate this model by interviewing some of the leading experts in the industry. The result is an expert-informed high resolution site suitability map for the oceans surrounding Ireland.

The model corresponds pretty well with most of the existing literature on fixed foundations in Ireland, basically finding that the east coast and south coast are best overall. However, my dissertation identifies significant fine scale variation along both of these coastlines, which could help to avoid wind farms being put in the wrong place on the right coast.

Some of the highest-scoring areas were near Wexford on the east coast, though strong pockets of suitability appeared in selected locations along the entire eastern and, to a lesser extent, southern coasts. Depth, proximity to electrical substations, and overlap with fishing grounds turned out to be some of the biggest drivers of variation, but all 11 factors contributed meaningfully to the results.

Planned and existing wind farm projects can also be evaluated with the model. Arklow Bank, the lone wind farm in production, scored quite high with a suitability score of 90.31/100. In contrast, the ill-fated Sceirde Rocks had a much poorer suitability score, with just 69.18/100. This is why studies like this one can help developers make wise decisions about where to put their wind farms.

This model is also dynamic, so a user can easily change the importance hierarchy of the different variables considered by the model. For example, if a developer has a strong preference to avoid areas where fisheries conflicts might occur, but doesn't have a problem with building in deeper waters, they can use my model to make a bespoke suitability map tailored to these preferences. In practice, this makes the tool adaptable for different stakeholders, from government regulators to private developers to local communities.

This model draws from similar studies that have been published in other countries such as Turkey, Greece, and Spain, yet it is the first of its kind for fixed platform offshore wind in Ireland! With billions of euros and Ireland’s renewable energy future on the line, I believe tools like this can play a crucial role in steering development toward sites that are both technically and socially viable.

If you are curious to dig deeper, I have linked my dissertation here. And if you are working in the offshore wind field, whether in industry, research, or policy, I would love to hear from you. Feel free to reach out via email. Happy wind farming!